Watching Paint Dry

This time of the year is the most frustrating days for wealth coaches; the markets are just drifting with no conviction in either direction. Fear and complacency are the theme. Worries about Federal Reserve actions, Syria and Obamacare coupled with another debit ceiling are keeping investors frozen. So where we are now overbought or oversold? Just a few short weeks ago we were overbought, but as volume on the indexes began to dry up and we are now becoming oversold. What is interesting is we not only are seeing this in the equity market but possible in the bond market. Housing is slowing due to various excuses and with the latest economic reports the economy may not be as robust as we perceive.

Billions of dollars in bond funds are being liquidated but instead of going into equities they are going into cash. The consensus is that we are due for a correction and the myth of market timing may come true and the individual investor will have a chance to get in at the elusive bottom.

I remember my grandfather telling me, when I was learning to box, “Don’t close your eyes; it is the one you don’t see coming that will knock you out.” That is what market timing does, very few kept their eyes open in March 2009 and took advantage of what may be known as a generational low.  Up markets are just as painful if you don’t pay attention. I have never seen a 150% drop but we just had a 150% upside.

With bond money turning into cash this is example of how we are sitting just on the edges of a new super cycle bull market, not to dissimilar in potential to the one that lasted from 1980 until the tech wreck of 2000.



About billriley

Chief Executive Officer, Chief Compliance Officer A co-founder and shareholder, William Riley is a 33 year industry veteran, who observed, many years ago, that over time institutional investors typically outperform individual investors while accepting less risk. In his role as Chief Executive Officer, Bill works tirelessly to make the wealth management strategies used by the world’s wealthiest families and largest institutions available to our firm’s individual clients. Bill combines fundamental and technical analysis to minimize investment portfolio risk and maximize potential returns. He uses a variety of non-correlated asset classes, including alternative investments, to minimize portfolio volatility and seek absolute returns in down or flat markets. Finally, Bill believes in a comprehensive approach to wealth management that fully coordinates and seamlessly integrates portfolio management, risk management and asset protection, trust, estate, tax and charitable planning. Prior to co-founding Riley Wealth Management ,LLC, Bill held management positions at Merrill Lynch, UBS, Raymond James, Paine Webber and J.C. Bradford. Bill founded Fort Worth branches for Raymond James and J.C. Bradford. Prior to entering the financial services industry, Bill ran his families closely held businesses. Bill’s experience operating family businesses combined with his wealth management experience makes him uniquely qualified to advise entrepreneurs and business owners on a variety of matters including complex and sensitive issues relating to business succession. Bill’s degrees and designations included a Masters Degree in Business Administration (MBA), the Chartered Financial Consultant designation (ChFC), the Chartered Life Underwriter designation (CLU) and the Wealth Management Specialist designation (WMS). A Fort Worth native, Bill is a TCU alum and active in many civic and charitable organizations. Bill and his wife, Marsha, now reside in Colleyville, and they have four grown children and four grandchildren. When he is not working on portfolios or studying financial markets, Bill can be found on the golf courses of Ridglea Country Club.
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