Where do we go from here?

The old adage of sell in May and go away did not pan out for the bears. May was positive and June is starting out the same. It is important to evaluate what our game plan is for the summer and the rest of the year. If we pay attention to the three primary indicators monetary, psychology and valuation tells us that for all times in the last 40 years that we’ve had the exact same criteria, in 100% of the cases you had a positive return in the next 12 months. In fact the average return for the next 12 months is 10.77% with the maximum of 32.03%.

Now I already hear the bear’s mantra of; ”this time it is different.” I have had people accuse me of being the proverbial bull, but I find no accuracy in this accusation. Coming into 2008, I had a very different outlook on equity investing. One of my Rileyisms when someone asks me about the market and they are NOT one of our clients I respond with “the market will continue to go up until it decides to go down.” Argue with that! I am never afraid to invest in equities when the stars (indicators) are aligned as positively as they are now.

What is really holding the markets back is the domination of the risk-adverse investors in the public arena. Waiting for a pullback in the equity market to get in is like watching paint dry. By the time you figure it out its too late or too early and disappointments abound. You just have to go ahead and touch the wall and chance a finger print you can always touch it up.



About billriley

Chief Executive Officer, Chief Compliance Officer A co-founder and shareholder, William Riley is a 33 year industry veteran, who observed, many years ago, that over time institutional investors typically outperform individual investors while accepting less risk. In his role as Chief Executive Officer, Bill works tirelessly to make the wealth management strategies used by the world’s wealthiest families and largest institutions available to our firm’s individual clients. Bill combines fundamental and technical analysis to minimize investment portfolio risk and maximize potential returns. He uses a variety of non-correlated asset classes, including alternative investments, to minimize portfolio volatility and seek absolute returns in down or flat markets. Finally, Bill believes in a comprehensive approach to wealth management that fully coordinates and seamlessly integrates portfolio management, risk management and asset protection, trust, estate, tax and charitable planning. Prior to co-founding Riley Wealth Management ,LLC, Bill held management positions at Merrill Lynch, UBS, Raymond James, Paine Webber and J.C. Bradford. Bill founded Fort Worth branches for Raymond James and J.C. Bradford. Prior to entering the financial services industry, Bill ran his families closely held businesses. Bill’s experience operating family businesses combined with his wealth management experience makes him uniquely qualified to advise entrepreneurs and business owners on a variety of matters including complex and sensitive issues relating to business succession. Bill’s degrees and designations included a Masters Degree in Business Administration (MBA), the Chartered Financial Consultant designation (ChFC), the Chartered Life Underwriter designation (CLU) and the Wealth Management Specialist designation (WMS). A Fort Worth native, Bill is a TCU alum and active in many civic and charitable organizations. Bill and his wife, Marsha, now reside in Colleyville, and they have four grown children and four grandchildren. When he is not working on portfolios or studying financial markets, Bill can be found on the golf courses of Ridglea Country Club.
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