Party like its 1982

One of my barometers for investing is the watching the fear index. The fear index, the VIX, in 1980 was extremely high and very volatile in the midst of all the speculators and public investors buying gold and stashing it in their back-yards.

In 1982, the stock market broke out of a 14-year bottoming process. However, no one took it seriously and remain looking in the rear view mirror until sometime in 1996; 16 years later. Is this starting to sound familiar?

In 2013, we see the price of gold down very dramatically. I hope you see the correlation.

Since my discipline is observing not predicting, I have no idea of the magnitude of what lies ahead. The price of gold started to tell you something amazing was happening 21 months ago.

The rally is being driven like in 1982 to 1990 by the institutional investor; the public barely has its toe in the water. This is why the rich get richer and those who hesitate are lost. This does not mean the indexes will continue to set new records every day but when respected academics call for 1700 to 1900 on the S&P they should be acknowledged. However, many will still sit it out and look back with “should have” as their excuse.


About billriley

Chief Executive Officer, Chief Compliance Officer A co-founder and shareholder, William Riley is a 33 year industry veteran, who observed, many years ago, that over time institutional investors typically outperform individual investors while accepting less risk. In his role as Chief Executive Officer, Bill works tirelessly to make the wealth management strategies used by the world’s wealthiest families and largest institutions available to our firm’s individual clients. Bill combines fundamental and technical analysis to minimize investment portfolio risk and maximize potential returns. He uses a variety of non-correlated asset classes, including alternative investments, to minimize portfolio volatility and seek absolute returns in down or flat markets. Finally, Bill believes in a comprehensive approach to wealth management that fully coordinates and seamlessly integrates portfolio management, risk management and asset protection, trust, estate, tax and charitable planning. Prior to co-founding Riley Wealth Management ,LLC, Bill held management positions at Merrill Lynch, UBS, Raymond James, Paine Webber and J.C. Bradford. Bill founded Fort Worth branches for Raymond James and J.C. Bradford. Prior to entering the financial services industry, Bill ran his families closely held businesses. Bill’s experience operating family businesses combined with his wealth management experience makes him uniquely qualified to advise entrepreneurs and business owners on a variety of matters including complex and sensitive issues relating to business succession. Bill’s degrees and designations included a Masters Degree in Business Administration (MBA), the Chartered Financial Consultant designation (ChFC), the Chartered Life Underwriter designation (CLU) and the Wealth Management Specialist designation (WMS). A Fort Worth native, Bill is a TCU alum and active in many civic and charitable organizations. Bill and his wife, Marsha, now reside in Colleyville, and they have four grown children and four grandchildren. When he is not working on portfolios or studying financial markets, Bill can be found on the golf courses of Ridglea Country Club.
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