Another Observation

You may have heard the old market proverb, “As January goes, so goes the year.” I prefer the saying, “as the first five days of January go, so goes the year.” We have now completed the first five days of January 2013, so let’s see how this barometer works historically. According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, 34 of the past 40 Januaries with a positive “first five day” period were followed by full year gains (for an 85% accuracy ratio). 2011 was the first time since 2002 when a positive “first five days” failed to predict an up year for the S&P [SPX], but 2012 managed to put the trend back on track. Specifically, the SPX rose 1.84% during the first five days in January of 2012, which foreshadowed the gain for the year of 13.41%.

Given that 2013 is a post-election year, it is worth noting the average performance for post-election years is 6.75%. But for the post-election years with appositive “first five day “period, the average gain is 22.8%. Hopefully that’s a positive sign for 2013.



About billriley

Chief Executive Officer, Chief Compliance Officer A co-founder and shareholder, William Riley is a 33 year industry veteran, who observed, many years ago, that over time institutional investors typically outperform individual investors while accepting less risk. In his role as Chief Executive Officer, Bill works tirelessly to make the wealth management strategies used by the world’s wealthiest families and largest institutions available to our firm’s individual clients. Bill combines fundamental and technical analysis to minimize investment portfolio risk and maximize potential returns. He uses a variety of non-correlated asset classes, including alternative investments, to minimize portfolio volatility and seek absolute returns in down or flat markets. Finally, Bill believes in a comprehensive approach to wealth management that fully coordinates and seamlessly integrates portfolio management, risk management and asset protection, trust, estate, tax and charitable planning. Prior to co-founding Riley Wealth Management ,LLC, Bill held management positions at Merrill Lynch, UBS, Raymond James, Paine Webber and J.C. Bradford. Bill founded Fort Worth branches for Raymond James and J.C. Bradford. Prior to entering the financial services industry, Bill ran his families closely held businesses. Bill’s experience operating family businesses combined with his wealth management experience makes him uniquely qualified to advise entrepreneurs and business owners on a variety of matters including complex and sensitive issues relating to business succession. Bill’s degrees and designations included a Masters Degree in Business Administration (MBA), the Chartered Financial Consultant designation (ChFC), the Chartered Life Underwriter designation (CLU) and the Wealth Management Specialist designation (WMS). A Fort Worth native, Bill is a TCU alum and active in many civic and charitable organizations. Bill and his wife, Marsha, now reside in Colleyville, and they have four grown children and four grandchildren. When he is not working on portfolios or studying financial markets, Bill can be found on the golf courses of Ridglea Country Club.
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