Happy 2013!

What a great start to the New Year! Using the Dow Theory, the transports have had a very strong action. When the transports do well, the market does well. The bull market began in March 9th, 2009, and so far we’re 120% ahead in the S&P 500 index. Is the bull market is running out of steam? Bull markets don’t end until monetary conditions turn negative. In other words, “you don’t fight the fed.”

The great John Templeton had two sayings that I follow: “Bull markets are born on pessimism, grow on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria” and “the four most dangerous words in investing are….This time it is different.” It doesn’t really matter when the bull started.  The current valuation of the markets we still have a long way to go before overvaluation begins. The key is being in the right sectors and riding out the volatility of the political climate. We will be inundated with various doomsday debit ceiling prognostications just like we were in December, but what really happened? The market just had one of its best weeks since before the financial crisis of 2008.

The largest obstacle is the fear that is holding the individual investor back from equities. The reality is that the economy is improving with or without our wonderful politicians. Until interest rates return to reasonable level, where can one find returns that will stay up with an impending inflation reboot?

Bill

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About billriley

Chief Executive Officer, Chief Compliance Officer A co-founder and shareholder, William Riley is a 33 year industry veteran, who observed, many years ago, that over time institutional investors typically outperform individual investors while accepting less risk. In his role as Chief Executive Officer, Bill works tirelessly to make the wealth management strategies used by the world’s wealthiest families and largest institutions available to our firm’s individual clients. Bill combines fundamental and technical analysis to minimize investment portfolio risk and maximize potential returns. He uses a variety of non-correlated asset classes, including alternative investments, to minimize portfolio volatility and seek absolute returns in down or flat markets. Finally, Bill believes in a comprehensive approach to wealth management that fully coordinates and seamlessly integrates portfolio management, risk management and asset protection, trust, estate, tax and charitable planning. Prior to co-founding Riley Wealth Management ,LLC, Bill held management positions at Merrill Lynch, UBS, Raymond James, Paine Webber and J.C. Bradford. Bill founded Fort Worth branches for Raymond James and J.C. Bradford. Prior to entering the financial services industry, Bill ran his families closely held businesses. Bill’s experience operating family businesses combined with his wealth management experience makes him uniquely qualified to advise entrepreneurs and business owners on a variety of matters including complex and sensitive issues relating to business succession. Bill’s degrees and designations included a Masters Degree in Business Administration (MBA), the Chartered Financial Consultant designation (ChFC), the Chartered Life Underwriter designation (CLU) and the Wealth Management Specialist designation (WMS). A Fort Worth native, Bill is a TCU alum and active in many civic and charitable organizations. Bill and his wife, Marsha, now reside in Colleyville, and they have four grown children and four grandchildren. When he is not working on portfolios or studying financial markets, Bill can be found on the golf courses of Ridglea Country Club.
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