Chance of Making Money in 2013

As usual this time of year I am fielding a lot of questions about prospects for next year. I am very irritated looking back at the last 19 months, so I’m looking forward to 2013. I expect this 12-year volatility to settle down and some good solid long term trends to evolve. Going back to May 2011, the market has been nothing but confusing and frustrating. I know the last 19 months have done more to turn the public stock investor off than anything.
However after 12 years of unacceptable investing environments, I am becoming very excited about the potential breakouts that are just waiting to happen. The averages are bumping up against resistance lines and waiting for that spark to continue the upward trend that we have experienced since the election. China and Europe are improving with capitalism spreading throughout the world. The theme of a Flat World resulting in emerging economies producing massive consumption in the coming decades is happening. For example, Starbucks is planning on opening 1500 stores in China. Last year, our allocations to international underperformed but just in the last two weeks improvement has accelerated.
Looking over some 50 indicators that I use to manage money I find very few downturns on my charts. Therefore, I am going to step out on a limb here and give a 99% chance of making money next year if you diversify properly, rebalance on a discipline basis and focus on buy low and sell high.
I wish everyone a Merry Christmas and thank you for being part of the Riley Wealth family.


About billriley

Chief Executive Officer, Chief Compliance Officer A co-founder and shareholder, William Riley is a 33 year industry veteran, who observed, many years ago, that over time institutional investors typically outperform individual investors while accepting less risk. In his role as Chief Executive Officer, Bill works tirelessly to make the wealth management strategies used by the world’s wealthiest families and largest institutions available to our firm’s individual clients. Bill combines fundamental and technical analysis to minimize investment portfolio risk and maximize potential returns. He uses a variety of non-correlated asset classes, including alternative investments, to minimize portfolio volatility and seek absolute returns in down or flat markets. Finally, Bill believes in a comprehensive approach to wealth management that fully coordinates and seamlessly integrates portfolio management, risk management and asset protection, trust, estate, tax and charitable planning. Prior to co-founding Riley Wealth Management ,LLC, Bill held management positions at Merrill Lynch, UBS, Raymond James, Paine Webber and J.C. Bradford. Bill founded Fort Worth branches for Raymond James and J.C. Bradford. Prior to entering the financial services industry, Bill ran his families closely held businesses. Bill’s experience operating family businesses combined with his wealth management experience makes him uniquely qualified to advise entrepreneurs and business owners on a variety of matters including complex and sensitive issues relating to business succession. Bill’s degrees and designations included a Masters Degree in Business Administration (MBA), the Chartered Financial Consultant designation (ChFC), the Chartered Life Underwriter designation (CLU) and the Wealth Management Specialist designation (WMS). A Fort Worth native, Bill is a TCU alum and active in many civic and charitable organizations. Bill and his wife, Marsha, now reside in Colleyville, and they have four grown children and four grandchildren. When he is not working on portfolios or studying financial markets, Bill can be found on the golf courses of Ridglea Country Club.
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