The Home Stretch

The final weeks of 2012 are upon us. This season has historically been the best performing of the year. Last night I reviewed the early Christmas shopping and the results beat expectations, China showed improvement and so did Germany. To top it all off, the stock market produced some strong gains last week supporting my Nervous Nellie indicator which I talked about last week.

History shows us that you have more chance of making money than losing for the next month by 76.9% with a median return of 6.85%.  The real positive is that during the first year of a Presidential reelection the chances of making money is 91%. However, don’t try to chase stocks here if you are holding cash. The market has had a fairly good year so add to winning sectors and look for those that have not participated in the rally.

My point here is if you feel like you are missing the rally or still skeptical about the economic environment and hold cash, proper diversification and rebalancing would have kept you in the game and not suffer some of the missteps listed above. Expect volatility as we close out the year but it is not going to be a negative for the market.

Thanks for reading



About billriley

Chief Executive Officer, Chief Compliance Officer A co-founder and shareholder, William Riley is a 33 year industry veteran, who observed, many years ago, that over time institutional investors typically outperform individual investors while accepting less risk. In his role as Chief Executive Officer, Bill works tirelessly to make the wealth management strategies used by the world’s wealthiest families and largest institutions available to our firm’s individual clients. Bill combines fundamental and technical analysis to minimize investment portfolio risk and maximize potential returns. He uses a variety of non-correlated asset classes, including alternative investments, to minimize portfolio volatility and seek absolute returns in down or flat markets. Finally, Bill believes in a comprehensive approach to wealth management that fully coordinates and seamlessly integrates portfolio management, risk management and asset protection, trust, estate, tax and charitable planning. Prior to co-founding Riley Wealth Management ,LLC, Bill held management positions at Merrill Lynch, UBS, Raymond James, Paine Webber and J.C. Bradford. Bill founded Fort Worth branches for Raymond James and J.C. Bradford. Prior to entering the financial services industry, Bill ran his families closely held businesses. Bill’s experience operating family businesses combined with his wealth management experience makes him uniquely qualified to advise entrepreneurs and business owners on a variety of matters including complex and sensitive issues relating to business succession. Bill’s degrees and designations included a Masters Degree in Business Administration (MBA), the Chartered Financial Consultant designation (ChFC), the Chartered Life Underwriter designation (CLU) and the Wealth Management Specialist designation (WMS). A Fort Worth native, Bill is a TCU alum and active in many civic and charitable organizations. Bill and his wife, Marsha, now reside in Colleyville, and they have four grown children and four grandchildren. When he is not working on portfolios or studying financial markets, Bill can be found on the golf courses of Ridglea Country Club.
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