Monthly Archives: November 2011

Let’s Take a Look at Reality

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An Early Thanksgiving Day in the Mountains

On Thanksgiving Day in 1806, explorer Zebulon Pike gazed up at a snow-covered mountain top he called “Grand Peak” and realized it was beyond his reach. In his journal, he recorded his belief that “no human being could have ascended … Continue reading

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The Lack of Accuracy of Forecasting Experts

There is an overwhelming body of evidence on the inability of forecasters to make accurate predictions. Take, for example, this last week in the equity markets. We saw a 400 point free fall followed by a 100 plus rally the … Continue reading

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